Monday, January 7, 2013

Viterra adds more volume to forward stem

Beneficial rain was received across the Darling Downs (20mm) and Northern NSW (30mm), elsewhere CQ and Sth West QLD received 10mm.  WA continues to see some wild weather, with Corrigin experiencing heavy winds and up to 50mm earlier this week. The rest of the country is forecast to bake for the next week, with the mercury set to hover around 40°C for southern parts of the country.

CQ regions remain dry with rainfall deficits running at 50 - 65mm. With the BoM not offering much hope for a wet summer, feedlots that are already nearing capacity may face even more numbers as cattle are turned off quicker from already diminishing pastures. The theme in south east Australia has been less wheat being received into the system than originally expected. VIC harvest has been finished for a couple of weeks in the main production regions, with only parts of the Western District remaining. Growing regions south of the divide has enjoyed an idea year, with big yields being reaped. Although some parts of the Mallee (40% of state output) had a poor year, overall harvest is expected to be average. Potentially a record canola crop is forecast, while the smallest barley crop since ‘04/05.

Harvest has wrapped up for SA, with all deliveries now trickling in from ex farm storages. Viterra received 300kt over the last two weeks, and now takes total receivals to 5.36mmt, just under 1mmt less than the same time last year. Apart from some isolated areas were frost trimmed yield potential, final yields ended up better than expected given the limited rainfall opportunities. Post harvest (Feb - Sept) only 77kt was delivered into Viterra, however with prices $100 better off this time around you would expect less to be coming from on farm storages this year. Poor season in the western EP is evident with only two ships (36kt) listed on the forward stem for Thevenard. With the dry second half of 2012, and forecast dry summer, carry over soil moisture for the new cropping season is expected to be minimal. 

For many it was a record finish in WA, however the wet weather during December dragged out operations until after the New Year. Just under 9mmt has been delivered into CBH, this compares to the record 15mmt received in ’11/12. Thanks to the harvest running ahead of schedule and prior excellent quality, only an estimated 10 - 12% of the crop has been downgraded to GP/FED.

A total of 523kt of grain was exported over the past week (39% ex WA). In January WA is expected to ship the most amount of grain (1.04mmt) since last October. Viterra also added more volume to its forward stem, 2.37mmt wheat, 196kt barley and 105kt canola. Some of this volume has been added from the “Unknown Commodity”, with 481kt removed.

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