Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Clear weather allows Western Australian harvest to progress.


A dry week has allowed growers to make up for lost time, with the weekly forecast also looking kind for growers. APW values are still continuing their steady range that has been in place for the last two weeks, while canola continues to fall out of bed declining $14. Prices however have held up well considering the sharper declines on the East Coast, as growers aggressively sell into the falling cash market, whilst holding onto wheat. As expected malting barley prices have increased with more news of stained and shot/sprung grain showing up. Emerald have even started quoted malt 2 prices, but at a large discount of $30/t. CBH have acknowledged that quality concerns and are rushing falling number machines to the most effected regions, hopefully this will avoid the major issues that SA growers experienced under Viterra last year.

Last months news that Saudi Arabia had included lupins on its animal feed subsidy list, hasn’t yet set the market on fire. Prices are still gradually falling away from highs ($270 FIS) seen in June. Viterra are paying the better money ($210), with AWB and CBH not too far behind. The lower protein grades have held steady during this same period.

In their weekly harvest update CBH has estimated that 1.2mmt has so far been received into the system, 200k less then the same time last year. Geraldton has so far delivered the lion’s share at 730k, followed by Kwinana 260k, Esperance 145k and Albany 32k. Although still too early to get a good reading of wheat quality, the bulk would be ASW, with the northern regions having higher concentration of ASW/FED1.

CBH is estimating the crop, to be the second largest in history, at an estimated 12.5-13 mmt, behind only the 14.7mt record set in 2003-04. A record breaking 3 mmt crop is still possible in the Geraldton Zone. Phenomenal yields in the zone, with harvesting equipment yield monitors showing up to 7t/ha in some cases, with an average of around 3t/ha average common. In the Kwinana zone, the majority of grain received has been canola with 25% of the estimated tonnage in the bin and quality to date has been outstanding. With forecast clear weather over the next week, daily receivals will be hitting 200kt. Total receivals expected is at 5.9 mmt

In the Albany zone, CBH have estimated that 90% of receivals so far has been canola. However some regions have received a bucket load of rain of late, and wheat maturity will be delayed. Receivals that feed into the port zone should total 2.3mmt, more then double last year. Widespread rain also affected the start of Esperance harvest, with mainly canola being delivered. The early wheat has been low quality.  The estimated receivals for the zone remain at 1.4 mmt

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